Odds of a Trump win are shortening — but it's a long night ahead

4 November 2020

2:21 PM

4 November 2020

2:21 PM

The results are arriving in the 2020 elections.

Joe Biden has won California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Washington DC. No surprises there.

The New York Times has called Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming for the President, also all to be expected.

Results in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not expected tonight.

FiveThirtyEight now gives President Trump a 50 percent chance of winning the electoral college. Bookies in the United Kingdom have made him the favorite to win.

Fox News has just called Florida for Donald Trump. Biden dramatically underperformed in Miami-Dade compared to Hillary Clinton four years ago. This suggests something the Republican party have been saying all day may be true — the Democrats may have cannibalized their urban vote with early voting, so they will not have that same on-the-day advantage which they formerly had in so many battleground cities. Trump is overperforming with Hispanic voters in the state. It is looking like Biden’s strategy of playing ‘Despacito’ on his cell phone did not pay off.

Arizona, with its 10 electoral votes, has gone for Joe Biden, per Fox News.

Biden was ahead in Ohio, but a source close to the Trump campaign said at around 9 p.m. that a significant number of the votes yet to come in were likely Republican, as early votes and the cities were among the first counted. Trump has since taken the lead in the crucial Rust Belt state.

Cory Gardner has lost his Senate seat in Colorado to John Hickenlooper, while Democrat Doug Jones was defeated by Tommy Tuberville in the Alabama Senate race. Cynthia Lummis has won a vacant Senate seat in Wyoming. Roger Marshall, a Republican, looks set to win the Senate seat for Kansas. And according to Fox News, Democrat Mark Kelly has beaten Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race.

Sen. Mitch McConnell has won reelection in Kentucky, where Democrats had spent $50 million trying to unseat him. Republican senators Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, John Cornyn in Texas, Tom Cotton in Arkansas, Lindsay Graham in South Carolina, Bill Hagerty in Tennessee, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Jim Inhofe in Oklahoma, Shelley Moore Caputo in West Virginia, Jim Risch in Idaho, Mike Rounds in South Dakota and Ben Sasse in Nebraska have also held their seats, as have Democratic senators Cory Booker in New Jersey, Chris Coons in Delaware, Richard Durbin in Illinois, Ed Markey in Massachusetts, Jack Reed in Rhode Island, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Mark Warner in Virginia.

Fox News’s Decision Desk is projecting that the Democrats will retain control of the House.

So far all incumbent governors have won reelection: Doug Burgum in North Dakota, John Carney in Delaware, Jay Inslee in Washington, Jim Justice in West Virginia, Mike Parson on Missouri, Phil Scott in Vermont and Chris Sununu in New Hampshire.

It’s going to be a long night ahead.

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This article first appeared on The Spectator's US edition.

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