In 2005 American psychologist Philip E Tetlock published a book Expert Political Judgement in which he analysed 82,000 expert political and economic forecasts over 20 years and found that experts are no more reliable than non-specialists in guessing what is going to happen.

Effectively 50 per cent of the time a layperson will be equally correct as an “expert” in guessing an outcome.

So here is my guess as to the future of Anthony Albanese as leader of the federal Labor Party: he isn’t going to be chopped and will lead Labor to the next federal election despite the tsunami of negative...