Dominic Perrottet obviously thinks Bega is in play at the by-election on Saturday judging by his presence last week in the electorate. He’s not wrong. Of the four upcoming by-elections this weekend, Bega is the most likely to fall. The premier’s weak leadership, a disintegrating frontbench, a corruption investigation into his predecessor, two policy-induced severe recessions, and a huge swing against the Coalition nationally all point to a loss in Bega.