Mid-term unpopularity is a given in British politics. Veterans from the Thatcher era like to joke that a government that isn’t behind at the halfway point of its term isn’t doing its job properly. But the worry for the Tories is that their current unpopularity is different.

The usual explanation for the mid-term blues is that a prime minister seeks to get the politically difficult stuff out of the way as soon as possible after an election victory.