The problem with polling

22 July 2021 8:10 am

If you did an opinion poll about opinion polls, chances are most people would recognise the limitations of market research,…

A plea from a pollster: stop listening to the public

25 June 2021 9:17 pm

When Dominic Cummings released his WhatsApp messages with Boris Johnson earlier this month, perhaps the most alarming was the one…

raghavan mayur

Meet the pollster who doesn’t suck at his job

7 December 2020 4:11 am

The winner of this year’s presidential election may be different than the last, but the struggles of the polling industry…


The integrity of the Constitution must be protected

4 November 2020 11:41 pm

As I write this, the outcome of the US presidential election remains undecided. To judge by media reports, it may…


My final election prediction: Trump 305 to Biden 233

4 November 2020 3:39 am

I’m doubling down. In 2016, against virtually all of the polling data and sophisticated analysis, I predicted Donald Trump would…

red wave

The red wave is inbound

4 November 2020 3:01 am

So, the party of peace and love is planing to riot in New York, Washington and other places where their…


Are the polls worth your attention?

26 September 2020 2:57 am

The polls are predicting Donald Trump will lose in November — again. Is it worth paying them attention? Pollsters have…

joe biden wrong polls

What if the polls are right?

24 September 2020 1:35 am

I was wrong, and I apologize. For far too long, pundits have pronounced confidently on matters of national import, pocketed…


Why I’m not predicting a Biden blowout

14 September 2020 7:35 am

In 2016, I was one of the very few people who publicly stated the night before the election that, despite…


2016 all over again

30 August 2020 4:02 am

I’m not an election prognosticator. I have no magic insight telling me what will happen on November 3, 2020. Frankly,…


Exclusive: half of Americans support Trump bypassing Congress for COVID relief

14 August 2020 8:41 am

More than half of registered voters support President Trump using executive action to bypass Congress and extend coronavirus relief measures,…

peak biden

Have we passed peak Biden?

4 August 2020 3:12 am

A consensus has formed about this presidential election: it is Joe Biden’s to lose. As long as his vice-presidential nomination…

trump demise

Predictions of Trump’s demise may yet again be premature

25 July 2020 1:13 am

Throughout the summer, various polls from the key battleground states indicate Joe Biden is in a very strong position. He…


The Economist should be more like Walt Whitman

24 July 2020 2:51 am

America is complicated. It’s hard to predict what it’ll do next, despite all the time and money spent observing it.…

black voters

Will black voters abandon the Democrats in 2024?

18 July 2020 7:10 am

Joe Biden owes his nomination to black Democrats, who never joined the revolution led by Sen. Bernie Sanders, closed ranks…

Times Square 2016 election

The polling revolution

8 July 2020 1:19 am

It’s a difficult time to be a pollster. For roughly 40 years, phone surveys have been the go-to polling method.…

steve bannon

Is it time to bring back Steve Bannon?

19 May 2020 8:19 am

Until recently, it seemed unlikely that Donald Trump would need to call on the services of his former strategist Steve…

wuhan sue china

Half of Americans want their state to sue China for coronavirus damages

25 April 2020 6:49 am

Public opinion is rapidly turning against China as and intelligence agencies have exposed the full extent of the communist state’s…


Polls apart

9 January 2020 2:45 pm

This article is in The Spectator’s January 2020 US edition. Subscribe here. Galileo famously said that the book of nature is written…

donald trump orlando poll dancer

Why the polls will be wrong about Trump – again

21 June 2019 6:50 pm

The great ceremonial game of poll dancing is gearing up for its quadrennial orgy. Headlines across the fruited plain bark…

In the crazy world of identity politics, facts don’t matter

7 July 2018 9:00 am

According to a poll of 538 experts on women’s issues, the United States is one of the ten most dangerous…

Inside the Milibunker: the last days of Ed

16 May 2015 9:00 am

The inside story of Labour’s chaotic and secretive election campaign

How did the polls get it so wrong? Jim Messina knows

16 May 2015 9:00 am

Jim Messina, Cameron’s data supremo, explains all

The Tories are coming to believe in David Cameron's election hunch

14 February 2015 9:00 am

‘You did this,’ David Cameron repeatedly declared to Tory donors as he reeled off a list of the government’s achievements…