Neither ‘Albo’ Albanese nor Billy Shorten will be the next Labor prime minister, according to John Howard. This is partly because the first leader of the opposition that any party picks rarely goes on to win government. There are usually several changes before electoral victory — from, for example, Evatt to Calwell to Whitlam, or from Peacock to Hewson to Howard, or from Nelson to Turnbull to Abbott.