On Friday, Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, will go and see Theresa May. It is expected that she’ll tell him and then the country the date of her departure as Tory leader.

If May tries to hang on, Brady will have to open the sealed envelopes which reveal whether the ’22 executive has voted to change the rules and allow an immediate no confidence vote in May—even those on the executive who oppose a rule change accept that there is a majority for one.