Since the publication of Sue Gray’s update on partygate a trickle of letters of no confidence have been sent to the 1922 chairman Graham Brady. Two of the senders have gone public – Tobias Elwood and Peter Aldous – while Charles Walker has said he would ‘applaud’ Boris Johnson if he resigned of his own accord.

It’s worth noting that Aldous said one of the reasons he had submitted a letter of no confidence is that it became clear Boris Johnson has no intention of resigning. One MP who has submitted a letter tells Coffee House they are frustrated that many colleagues who want Johnson gone still appear to be expecting it to happen of its own accord: ‘There is never a good time to get rid of a leader’. MPs expect a handful more letters to go in as the week progresses.

On Monday night, Johnson calmed Tory nerves slightly at a private meeting with MPs following a shaky performance in the Chamber. His supporters remain confident that the number of letters is some way off the 54 required for a confidence vote. Yet the drip, drip nature of the party leaks – with more details of events in the papers today – and concerns over Johnson’s performance means that 54 letters could be reached at a rather random point.

Given there is no single person leading efforts to oust Johnson, the timing of a confidence vote will come as more of a surprise than it did under Theresa May when Brexiteers largely coordinated their letters. As James reports on Coffee House, it’s not helping the Prime Minister that parts of his grand reset have already hit the wall. The National Insurance hike many MPs had been led to believe would be axed remains in place and Lynton Crosby has played down the importance of any role he will have helping Johnson.

While the shadow whipping operation – made up of long-time Johnson supporters – has succeeded in shoring up some support for the Prime Minister in recent weeks, it has limits. A number of MPs complain to Coffee House that the operation has become too heavy handed. The tearoom is now viewed as a place to go if you want to have Johnson’s supporters big up the Prime Minister to you. Meanwhile, the tactics of Johnson’s most vocal defenders – such as Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg – have isolated some wavering MPs as they feel there is little acknowledgment that Johnson has done any wrong. ‘It’s a scorched earth policy and it’s backfiring,’ says one MP from the 2017 intake.

It’s in part for this reason that several MPs are unconvinced the mood is really turning in Johnson’s favour. ‘A lot of us have just gone to ground,’ says one member of the 2019 intake. As for the WhatsApp group of Boris Johnson supporters – over 100 MPs – formed to coordinate efforts to save him, MPs say that in a sign of how hard it is to work out who supports the Prime Minister, there are members on that group who have secretly sent in letters. It’s why if a confidence vote is called in the coming weeks and months, the result of a secret ballot could be very uncertain for the Prime Minister – even if MPs are telling Johnson’s allies they back him.