Whatever the result of this Saturday’s Victorian election, one thing is for sure: there will be no conservative renaissance south of the Murray. There are too many structural forces arrayed against it.

One of the more enduring mysteries of Australian politics is the dominance of the Labor Party in Victoria. As in spite of their litany of failures – from the Red Shirts Scandal to the country’s largest debt to the hotel quarantine fiasco – the ALP have held power in the Garden State for all but four of the last 23 years.

A trend that looks set to continue come this Saturday.