Could Premier Dan Andrews lose his seat at the Victorian state election on November 26?

This is a serious, surprise wild-card possibility. If this were to happen, who then would lead Labor in Victoria? Would a Dan-less Victorian Labor, either in government or out, descend into a political orgy of warring factions eating each other?

Under normal circumstances, the idea of Dan losing his seat is pure fantasy. At the 2018 Victorian state election, Dan received 57 per cent of first preference votes in the seat of Mulgrave. He holds the seat by a margin of 15.8 per cent. But 2022 is not ‘normal’, particularly on the ground in Mulgrave.

Here’s why this scenario is very real. Dan is facing a highly credible independent candidate, a symbol of hard-working, family small business in Victoria, and a victim of blatant and shocking Victorian government behaviour.

Ian Cook is the sort of honest, down-to-earth person that could well attract significant voter support.

Anyone who has heard of SlugGate will know of Ian.

Ian Cook built a solid family business (ICook Foods) over 30 years. It was based in the Eastern Melbourne suburb of Dandenong. With his staff of 41 workers, he supplied prepared meals to aged care homes and others.

In 2009, Dan Andrews, as Victorian Health Minister, created a government-owned business competitor to Ian. The business, Community Chef, was made possible through a $9 million grant from the then Federal Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese. Community Chef bled heavily as a loss-making exercise from day one. Ian Cook kept operating profitably.

On February 21, 2019, the local health regulator (Dandenong City Council) closed ICook Foods. It did so with the sign-off by the Victorian Health Department. The story surrounding its closure has been one of extreme controversy that included serious allegations against the Victorian government. There’s a website detailing the entire horror story.

Several abandoned police investigations that have created a bad smell in the electorate, with the saga investigated in two Victorian Parliamentary inquiries. Under parliamentary privilege, and in the public domain, Ian has named names of government officials who he says acted corruptly. No one has sought to challenge Ian in court. Instead, Ian is suing the Victorian government for $50 million.

Ian is standing as an independent against Dan Andrews in the seat of Mulgrave. Ian’s campaign theme is ‘Cook not Crook’. That says it all from a campaigning perspective. And Ian’s campaign is no Mickey Mouse operation. In fact, it makes the Labor Party’s normally impressively union-funded and staffed-on-the-ground election campaign look tame.

Andrews is a much-hated figure among a large section of the Victorian population, but polling indicates that the hatred is geographically widespread and not concentrated enough in key seats to topple the government. But what has happened is that Ian Cook, as the living most-damaged victim of all that is corrupt in Victoria, has become a magnet for the vitriol against Andrews.

Uniquely, Victorian laws make it illegal to donate more than a $1,000 a year to a political candidate. The law of course excludes unions. Ian’s campaign has been generously funded almost completely by thousands of small donations that poured in once he announced he was standing against Dan.

The scale of the support is evidenced by the fact that Ian has a full-sized campaign bus, just for Mulgrave, emblazoned with ‘Cook not Crook’ and ‘Honk if you hate Corruption’ signage. In addition, he has small trucks circling the electorate with similar signage. Wander around the electorate and you will see Ian’s street-signage in people’s front yards everywhere.

Ian has been inundated with people from across the state volunteering to door-knock, hand out pamphlets, and help at pre-polling and polling day booths. There are so many volunteers that Ian’s campaign coordinators are flat-out trying to organise everyone.

The election ‘maths’ for Mulgrave says that Ian is in the race to win. In 2018, the Liberals scored 33 per cent of the first preference vote, with their vote down 8 per cent on the previous 2014 election. Dan’s vote was up 9 per cent, with a commanding 57 per cent first preference vote. The Greens had 6 per cent and other independents 4 per cent.

For Ian to win, the Liberal vote needs to hold somewhere around its 2018 vote of 30 per cent. Let’s assume that Ian pulls (say) 10 per cent of the Liberal votes, reducing Liberals to 20-ish per cent. Liberals will be preferencing Ian, so the intel says. Let’s say the Green’s 6 per cent vote is rusted on and preferencing Dan.

Ian then needs to pull around 30 per cent of Dan’s Labor vote to win. Convention would say that this is impossible. Certainly, there’s no media or political commentary suggesting that this is possible. But say Dan’s vote could be expected to drop back to its (perhaps) more ‘natural’ 2014 baseline vote. Let’s face it, he has earned the wrath of a good number of people. In that case, Ian needs only 20 percent of the Andrews voters. But that’s still impossible political analysts would say.

Consider this. The seat of Mulgrave takes in the historically locked-in Labor voting, working-class and migrant suburbs of Noble Park North, with slabs of Noble Park, Dandenong North, and Springvale. These suburbs have large, but ageing, Greek populations and significant, younger, aspirational Vietnamese, Cambodian, and other Asian refugee populations. Visit the main shopping centre in Springvale and it’s like walking into the hubbub of a teeming Asian metropolis. These people are rapidly upwardly-mobile small business entrepreneurs.

It’s these people who were part of the demographic most kicked in the teeth by Dan’s 263 days of Covid lockdown in 2020-21. Their small businesses suffered hard, however, most of them would never, or rarely ever, vote Liberal, but then, along comes Ian Cook.

For this demographic Ian Cook is highly relatable. He is unassuming but with a quiet, steady firmness of conviction that engenders confidence.

Significantly, large numbers of (made good) refugees from harsh authoritarian dictatorships identify in Ian’s story the oppression of individuals by corrupt government. Ian stands before them as a victim of that same government behaviour. At the same time, Ian’s a saviour from it, for them. Why would they risk voting for Andrews? If it happened to Ian, then why would he not happen to them? They recognise what a dodgy government looks like. Voting for Ian Cook would make more sense to them.

From all accounts, this is the reception Ian is getting on the campaign ground in Mulgrave.

Will Dan Andrews lose his seat on November 26? Two-party conventional political analysis would say, ‘no way’. It’ll be interesting to watch the count on the night.

Ken Phillips is Executive Director of Self-Employed Australia

Disclaimer: This commentary should in no way be construed or taken as an endorsement (or otherwise) of any political candidate or party or as a suggestion as to how anyone should vote or not vote at the 26 November Victorian state election.