Centre-right voters are increasingly wondering how many more disasters it will take to seriously dent the government’s poll numbers. Whether it is repeated instances of bungled policy or a spate of Cabinet Ministers in trouble, the received wisdom that ‘Oppositions don’t win elections – governments lose them’ seems to be slow to kick in for this year’s election.

National’s latest internal polls reportedly show it climbing against Labour, but in the five months since Hipkins became Prime Minister public polls have featured the parties regularly swapping the lead in the race to October 14, with both sitting in a range from...