On the face of it, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July was a brilliant, opportunistic strike by one of the world’s most dedicated and fearless intelligence services.

The presumed targeting by Mossad, however, has disrupted negotiations to bring a ceasefire to Gaza and the release of more Israeli hostages, has provoked a sharp telephone call between President Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu, and has inflamed the Middle East to such a dangerous level that a full-scale war cannot be ruled out.