As Israeli troops make incursions into southern Lebanon, in the wake of recent successful aerial and covert campaigns against Hezbollah, Tel Aviv appears ascendant. Iran, by contrast, seems on the back foot, at odds with its proxies and divided internally as to the way forward.

Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strikes, and the West’s ability to check Israel’s actions to prevent all-out war, will determine how the next 48 hours pan out. Iran