Polling
The problem with polling
If you did an opinion poll about opinion polls, chances are most people would recognise the limitations of market research,…
A plea from a pollster: stop listening to the public
When Dominic Cummings released his WhatsApp messages with Boris Johnson earlier this month, perhaps the most alarming was the one…
Meet the pollster who doesn’t suck at his job
The winner of this year’s presidential election may be different than the last, but the struggles of the polling industry…
The integrity of the Constitution must be protected
As I write this, the outcome of the US presidential election remains undecided. To judge by media reports, it may…
My final election prediction: Trump 305 to Biden 233
I’m doubling down. In 2016, against virtually all of the polling data and sophisticated analysis, I predicted Donald Trump would…
The red wave is inbound
So, the party of peace and love is planing to riot in New York, Washington and other places where their…
Are the polls worth your attention?
The polls are predicting Donald Trump will lose in November — again. Is it worth paying them attention? Pollsters have…
What if the polls are right?
I was wrong, and I apologize. For far too long, pundits have pronounced confidently on matters of national import, pocketed…
Why I’m not predicting a Biden blowout
In 2016, I was one of the very few people who publicly stated the night before the election that, despite…
2016 all over again
I’m not an election prognosticator. I have no magic insight telling me what will happen on November 3, 2020. Frankly,…
Exclusive: half of Americans support Trump bypassing Congress for COVID relief
More than half of registered voters support President Trump using executive action to bypass Congress and extend coronavirus relief measures,…
Have we passed peak Biden?
A consensus has formed about this presidential election: it is Joe Biden’s to lose. As long as his vice-presidential nomination…
Predictions of Trump’s demise may yet again be premature
Throughout the summer, various polls from the key battleground states indicate Joe Biden is in a very strong position. He…
The Economist should be more like Walt Whitman
America is complicated. It’s hard to predict what it’ll do next, despite all the time and money spent observing it.…
Will black voters abandon the Democrats in 2024?
Joe Biden owes his nomination to black Democrats, who never joined the revolution led by Sen. Bernie Sanders, closed ranks…
The polling revolution
It’s a difficult time to be a pollster. For roughly 40 years, phone surveys have been the go-to polling method.…
Is it time to bring back Steve Bannon?
Until recently, it seemed unlikely that Donald Trump would need to call on the services of his former strategist Steve…
Half of Americans want their state to sue China for coronavirus damages
Public opinion is rapidly turning against China as and intelligence agencies have exposed the full extent of the communist state’s…
Polls apart
This article is in The Spectator’s January 2020 US edition. Subscribe here. Galileo famously said that the book of nature is written…
Why the polls will be wrong about Trump – again
The great ceremonial game of poll dancing is gearing up for its quadrennial orgy. Headlines across the fruited plain bark…
In the crazy world of identity politics, facts don’t matter
According to a poll of 538 experts on women’s issues, the United States is one of the ten most dangerous…
How did the polls get it so wrong? Jim Messina knows
Jim Messina, Cameron’s data supremo, explains all
The Tories are coming to believe in David Cameron's election hunch
‘You did this,’ David Cameron repeatedly declared to Tory donors as he reeled off a list of the government’s achievements…
